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In 2008, John McCain won 173 electoral college votes. It is very difficult to imagine any state that voted for McCain in 2008 not supporting the GOP candidate in 2012. So that means the GOP nominee has to swipe 97 votes from the Obama column to win in 2012. Where might they come from?
First, some caveats. State head-to-head polling is very iffy this far from the election. For example, President Obama has terrible approval numbers in Kentucky, 39/56 approve/disapprove. McCain beat him there 57.5% to 41.1%. Over the past three presidential elections, Republican have won the state by an average of 17 poitns. Yet in head to head match-ups, Obama currently leads all 2012 GOP candidates. Does anyone really think Obama is going to win Kentucky in 2012?
Thus, I tend to find that approval/disapproval numbers tell us more. Yet they also have their weakness – after all, candidates run against other specifically identifiable candidates. In an election such as we should expect in 2012, much will turn on whether voters see the race as a referendum on Obama, or as a referendum on the Republican nominee’s suitability. President Obama will spend over $1 billion to make it the latter, and have tremendous help from the national press corps. Space prohibits me from talking at length about the particulars of each state’s electorate, particularly as it may react to the various GOP candidates and the issues at the fore in 2012. I do believe that past election results, however, are quite useful – in states that typically voted Republican before 2008, and voted Republican again in 2010, there is a high probability that 2008 was an aberation. With that said, here we go.
Read On.
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